$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005.HK)

$BP-HSBC@EC2608A(24807.HK)

Yesterday, I selected 24807 HSBC BNP 68 Call based on a simple calculation using the BS model. The expiration date and leverage seemed relatively appropriate, though I bought very little (I'm not very willing to choose high-risk options now anyway; I've been burned before and seen a lot in Macau, so I'm a bit timid). Everyone can keep an eye on it.

For HSBC Holdings, the main focus is on dividends and share repurchase matters. This time, the key focus is on repurchase content. The previous 'kaur' hinted at reviewing repurchases from Q2. I used our Financial Risk Management (FRM) knowledge to analyze CET1 and RWA. If HSBC's profit this time is normal—with the previous CET at 14.0%—it's highly likely to reach the 14.0%-14.50% range this time. That would meet the requirements of the "Basel Accord." Moreover, with HSBC's current profitability ROTE at 18.7%, this level of profitability, coupled with the temporary pause in the "US-Israel-Iran conflict," is generally more beneficial than harmful. I think the current rise is due to funds betting on the repurchase matter.

In the corresponding capital market, even if there's only a planned guidance (even without formally initiating repurchases), the market will choose to believe it. Therefore, before or on the day of the interim report, you can use a small amount of capital to bet on high returns with warrants (bulls and bears).

Most of HSBC's previous negative news was due to financial fraud or financial cases. If there are no unexpected events, I think the provisions that needed to be made have already been resolved.