Morgan Stanley: Memory Pricing & CapEx
> PC & Graphics DRAM Hikes: 3Q26 estimates for PC DRAM (Blended ASP) have been revised sharply upward to up 15-20% (previously up 3-8%). Graphics DRAM (GDDR7) has also been bumped up to up 15-20% for the quarter.> Server & HBM Tailwinds: Server DRAM Blended ASP sees an upward revision to up 13-18% in 3Q26. Crucially, HBM Blended prices are projected to rise 8-13% in 3Q26, sustaining strong pricing power.> Enterprise SSD Outperformance: Enterprise SSD pricing shows the strongest momentum in the NAND segment, revised up to up 18-23% for 3Q26 (versus 13-18% previously). Client SSDs followed a similar upward trajectory to up 13-18%.> 4Q26 Moderation: While 4Q26 prices are expected to lose some velocity, PC DRAM saw its 4Q projection revised up slightly to up 3-8% (from 0-5% old).> Massive Absolute Spend: Total cash capex by the top 11 cloud suppliers is projected to reach an unprecedented $632 Billion in 2026 according to Morgan Stanley's estimates. This puts MS estimates 4% above the current FactSet consensus ($606 Billion).
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