Gold Daily Analysis 2026/8/18
The biggest change overnight remains the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations. Iran has stated it will shift to a more aggressive military posture, while Donald Trump explicitly ruled out extending the temporary agreement, causing Middle East tensions to heat up again. Gold has thus been supported by safe-haven capital, and crude oil prices have also risen significantly.
Meanwhile, weak US economic data continues to lower market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a weakening dollar. This is also a key driver pushing gold above 4400 recently. The market is now waiting for the Fed's July meeting minutes to further confirm the future interest rate direction.
However, US Treasury yields remain high, with the 30-year yield briefly rising above 5.3%, which limits gold's short-term upside potential.
Technical Analysis
From the hourly chart, gold remains in an uptrend structure, trading above 4400, with moving averages continuing to rise and MACD maintaining a bullish signal.
However, price has reached the resistance zone of 4428-4435, and the MACD histogram has shortened significantly, indicating that upward momentum is slowing down.
Key Levels:
- 4433-4435
: Short-term resistance; breakout targets 4450-4470
- 4415-4405
: First support level
- 4400
: Bullish/bearish dividing line
- 4377
: Important downside support
Today's Strategy
The main strategy is to buy on dips, avoiding chasing highs.
If price pulls back to stabilize around 4415-4405, consider going long with a stop-loss below 4400. Initial target is 4433, with a secondary target near 4450 upon breakout.
If there is a direct volume-driven breakout above 4435, follow the trend long, targeting 4450-4470.
If price breaks below 4400, the short-term bullish structure weakens. Stop chasing longs and observe support near 4377.
Summary:
Fundamentals are biased bullish, and technicals are also bullish, but 4428-4435 is the current key resistance. Today, gold is better suited for "buying on dips and following breakouts." It is not recommended to chase directly at resistance levels.
The above analysis is for reference only. Please manage position sizes carefully and strictly adhere to risk management. For more insights, visit Taoke Community.
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