2Q26 First Take on Xiaomi: Most headline metrics w

2Q26 First Take on Xiaomi: Most headline metrics were broadly in line with the Street.

The YoY revenue decline was driven by legacy segments, notably smartphones and IoT. Core profit missed as auto ASP and GPM fell again.

As the stock slid from HK$61 to below HK$30, the business headwinds were well understood by the market.

These include tight memory supply, fading state subsidies, and the digestion of accumulated auto backlogs.

With the share price depressed, investors care more about what comes next.

Key questions include:

1) Traditional biz: risk of further deterioration.

Could smartphone GPM dip below 8%, and when will IoT return to growth?

2) Auto 550k target: with only 216k delivered in the first seven months, will management lower full-year guidance after the print?

3) Other watchpoints (Xiaomi Auto overseas, AI, robotics): limited near-term P&L impact.

Any upside progress would lift mid-to-long-term expectations.

This print suggests the legacy biz has not yet stabilized in Q2, with smartphone GPM holding at a relatively low 8.5% and IoT still down a bit over 20% YoY.

On autos, the shine of SU7 and YU7 has faded, with combined monthly sales easing to ~30k; attention shifts to the upcoming Pengcheng range-extended models.

With only 216k delivered in the first seven months, meeting the prior 550k full-year target implies 334k over the next five months (avg. 66.8k/month), which is highly challenging.

Most sell-side houses have cut estimates to 460–500k; watch management commentary on the earnings call (Dolphin Research will compile a Trans).

Earnings today come mainly from the legacy biz and autos, and the stock likely finds a floor only when the legacy biz stops falling.

The Pengcheng launches are the swing factor on top of that foundation.

Deliveries start in Sep., so for now they are both a blind box and a source of hope.

Stay tuned for Dolphin Research's follow-up takeaways and Trans. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)