According to the Zhitong Finance APP, analysts say that the Reserve Bank of India will expand its record injection into the banking system to protect the Indian economy from increasingly adverse global factors. IDFC FIRST Bank stated that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to inject up to 4 trillion rupees (approximately 47 billion USD) this fiscal year through bond purchases and foreign exchange swaps. SBM India estimates that the Reserve Bank of India may inject up to 2 trillion rupees in the first half of this year.
Increasing liquidity is crucial to ensure the effective transmission of interest rate cuts, especially as risks such as the impact of new U.S. tariff measures on Indian exports continue to rise. The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates for the first time in five years in February this year and is expected to cut rates again on April 9. Analysts say that this week's rate cut will push the benchmark rate to a three-year low. Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, stated, &#34;At least 2 trillion rupees of excess liquidity is needed to achieve transmission during past rate cut cycles.&#34;
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Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India may want to maintain a surplus in the banking system, as approximately 35 billion USD in net maturities in the forward market will occur from April to June, which could lead to a cash deficit again. If the central bank chooses not to roll over the swaps upon maturity, it will need to return these dollars. Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., stated, &#34;The Reserve Bank of India's forward short positions are expected to continue requiring rollovers or direct foreign exchange swaps, or additional open market purchases to maintain excess liquidity.&#34;
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Last week, the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly announced that it would purchase an additional 800 billion rupees in assets in April, further boosting the bond market. Last Friday, the yield on 10-year Indian government bonds fell to 6.46%, the lowest level since January 2022. Nomura Holdings expects this yield to further decline to 6.25% in the coming months.
The push for liquidity has shifted the banking system from a deficit of 3.3 trillion rupees in January to a surplus. The most severe cash shortage in over a decade was partly due to the central bank's sale of dollars. Gaura Sen Gupta stated that the new purchases &#34;indicate that the Reserve Bank of India's liquidity management focus is on achieving a system surplus on a sustained basis.&#34;

Analysts indicate that the Reserve Bank of India will expand the record injection scale into the banking system to cope with global adverse factors. It is expected to inject up to 4 trillion rupees (approximately 47 billion USD) this fiscal year through bond purchases and foreign exchange swaps. Interest rate cuts will push the benchmark rate to a three-year low, and excess liquidity is key to ensuring the effective transmission of rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of India announced last week that it would purchase an additional 800 billion rupees of assets, boosting the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 6.46%

- Analysts indicate that the Reserve Bank of India will significantly increase its record funding to the banking system to shield the economy from global adverse factors.  
- The central bank is expected to inject up to 4 trillion rupees (approximately $47 billion) this fiscal year through bond purchases and forex swaps, with a potential 2 trillion rupees in the first half alone.  
- This liquidity boost is crucial for effective transmission of interest rate cuts, especially as risks to Indian exports rise due to new U.S. tariffs, with a rate cut anticipated on April 9.

全球不确定性加剧 印度央行有望延长创纪录现金刺激计划

全球不确定性加剧印度央行有望延长创纪录现金刺激计划