Gene Munster
2026.01.15 15:28

Key indicators of AI fundamental health in 2026 are now 2-for-2.

Bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations. I believe NVDA will grow >65% y/y, versus the Street at 50%.

1. Management commentary from NVDA at CES suggested upside to the Street’s 50% CY26 growth expectations.

2. SMC reported last night. Shares are up 7%, versus the Nasdaq up 0.8%, after the company guided March-quarter revenue 7% above Street estimates. NVDA is up 3% on the read-through.

This implies that for the March ’26 quarter, TSMC revenue is likely to grow 40% y/y, compared to 25% in Dec ’25and 41% in Sep ’25.

Source: Gene Munster

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