Everything You Need to Know Before NVIDIA's Earnings Report!
Just started using a new AI tool and asked some questions about NVIDIA's earnings report. What do you all think of the results?
According to reference information, here is a summary of key information predicted for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Q4 earnings report:
1. Key Financial Metrics Forecast
| Item | Wall Street Consensus | Other Institutions' Forecast | Year-on-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.2 billion | HSBC $40 billion | +73% |
| Adjusted Net Profit | $20.95 billion | - | +63% |
| Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) | $0.84 | UBS $0.85 | +63% |
| Data Center Revenue | $33.5-34.5 billion range | - | +84.5% |
2. Core Focus Points
Blackwell Chip Progress
- Expected to begin mass production in Q4
- UBS predicts Blackwell revenue of $25 billion next quarter
- Yield issues may drag down gross margin (expected to drop to 73.5%)
Validation of Market Demand Resilience
- Tech giants' total capital expenditure will reach $325 billion by 2025, far exceeding expectations
- Wedbush survey shows: despite DeepSeek, customer demand remains strong
- Musk's xAI has used 200,000 H100 chips, potentially expanding to 1 million in the future
Competition and Risks
- Intensified competition from AMD/Broadcom, major companies developing their own ASIC chips
- Supply chain risks (blacklists, packaging bottlenecks)
3. Overview of Institutional Opinions
| Institution | Key Opinion | Target Price/Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Recommends buying in advance, improved visibility for Blackwell supply | Bullish (not specified) |
| HSBC | Focus on Blackwell growth rather than total, expects Q4 revenue to exceed expectations | Target price $175 |
| UBS | Expects Blackwell to contribute $25 billion in revenue next quarter | - |
| Wedbush | Long-term positive on demand, target market value $5 trillion | - |
4. Market Expectations and Stock Price Impact
- Historical Performance: EPS has exceeded expectations in the past 8 quarters, with an average stock price fluctuation of ±9.2% on earnings report day
- Options Market: Implied stock price volatility ±11%, reaching a two-year high
- Target Price Range: Wall Street average target price 179 (current 179 (current 126.63 corresponds to +41%)
V. Related Investment Tools
| Type | Example Underlying |
|---|---|
| Long ETF | 2x Long $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL.US) / NVDL/$T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF(NVDX.US) |
| Short ETF | 2x Short $T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF(NVDQ.US), 1x Short NVDQ, 1x Short $Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF(NVDD.US) |
| Concept Stocks | $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) / TSM/AVGO/AMD/ AMD/DELL/$Microsoft(MSFT.US), etc. |
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