Gold and silver hit new highs, how will the metals sector rotate next?
Yesterday, both gold and silver prices hit new highs. If you look at the trend of gold, you will find that, well, it is fluctuating, but there is no obvious decline. Once it starts to rise, the speed of recovery will be very fast.
What is the current level of gold prices? Let me show you two charts. First, we need to look at the increase in gold prices, which should be considered together with inflation. If the price of inflation is included in the increase in gold prices, the adjusted increase in gold prices far exceeds the previous peak, which also illustrates the inflation-resistant nature of gold. This is perspective 1.
The second perspective is the most important driver of gold price variables in the past two years, which is central bank gold purchases. And we can currently see that central bank gold purchases have not slowed down due to the rise in gold prices in the past year.
Looking at gold stocks, the overseas gold stock ETF GDX has risen by nearly 180% this year, and the overseas triple-leveraged gold stock ETF has risen by more than 800% this year. Although the domestic gold stock ETF has not risen as much as the U.S. gold stock ETF, its return this year is close to 100%, which is also 20%~30% more than the rise in pure gold prices.
This does not mean that domestic gold stock ETFs are not good. First, from the perspective of the index, domestic gold stocks also include some gold jewelry producers, so compared to the pure gold mining index overseas, the sharpness and purity will be slightly lower. But on the other hand, it also shows that overseas investors have revalued gold stocks more fully than domestic investors this year.
So what opportunities can we still pay attention to in the non-ferrous metals sector? Let me show you two more charts. One is that the ratio of precious metals to base metals has also reached a historical extreme, meaning that base metals are relatively undervalued compared to precious metals.
On the other hand, the gold-to-oil ratio is also at a relatively undervalued level. Because people are worried about an oversupply of crude oil next year, which will suppress oil prices, but if we consider the demand for energy from the AI revolution, I am not particularly pessimistic about oil prices next year. And I have repeatedly emphasized that the relationship between crude oil producers and crude oil prices is not purely linear and positive.
(Not as a basis for investment)
$Gold(IN00380.US) $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) $MaxWealth CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF(517520.SH) $ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK) $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US) $UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund (LOF)-A(161226.SZ)
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