BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 3.17

Last week, I analyzed that both ETH and BMNR are in a bottom-building phase. Despite more negative macro crises emerging, ETH did not fall to its previous low of 1.7k. I also mentioned, "This position is like a spring compressed into a very tight range, with limited downside but accumulating upward momentum." The crypto rebound over the past two days has confirmed this view. BTC broke through 75k, and ETH approached 2.4k, both challenging the significant max pain of the 3.27 options chain. Meanwhile, regulatory progress has been made. Policymakers are gathering in DC this week for a week-long cryptocurrency conference. The Banking Committee bill is set to resume deliberations next week at the earliest. This timing coincides with the 3.27 options expiry next week. If things go smoothly, positive policy developments could drive a short squeeze, potentially breaking through the max pain in one go. Additionally, BMNR made two moves last week: 1) Increasing its investment in ORBS, bringing in ARK and Kraken to form a consortium, and mapping the investment in ORBS to a $50m investment in OpenAI, building a coordinated ecosystem of AI platform (OpenAI) + human verification (Worldcoin) + content reach (MrBeast); 2) Accepting 5000 ETH sold by the Ethereum Foundation via an OTC deal for ETH ecosystem development, indicating BMNR's deep involvement in ETH's infrastructure and synergy with the official team.

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin hoarding progress, holding 4.59 million coins, with a new addition of 60k last week. The cash position remained at 1.2 billion, and mNAV increased to 1.02. The staking amount remained at 3.04 million. BMRN announced that MAVAN will launch in 26Q1, which is within the next two weeks. I'm looking forward to seeing how the remaining 1 million+ ETH will be utilized on MAVAN. Last week, BlackRock's staking ETF, ETHB, launched, with a net inflow of 46 million on its first day of trading. Previously, BlackRock's ETHA was the third-fastest ETF in history to reach a 10-billion scale. Given BlackRock's industry position, this will bring institutional attention to compliant ETH staking, which will similarly benefit BMNR and MAVAN.

However, despite the above positive factors, I believe the market will not grant BMNR much premium until ETH returns to 2.8k. Looking at the power-law distribution chart of ETH and BMNR, when ETH is below 2.4k, BMNR's dispersion trend relative to ETH is significantly compressed, closer to a 1:1 proportional follow. Only when ETH reaches above 2.8k will the dispersion space open up, which is the timing for mNAV expansion. The current strategy remains to continue waiting, postpone extrapolating extreme ranges, and lie flat, following ETH's fluctuations.

Not investment advice

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)